China’s 1.4 Billion Market Is Nothing More Than an Illusion (1)
When considering how to understand the world and its broader currents, it is essential to look back at human history.
Even as society and technology advance, human nature—at least over the past few centuries—has changed little. Hence history tends to repeat itself, albeit in different forms: surface details vary endlessly, yet familiar underlying patterns return.
For example, as I also mentioned in the Profile message, economic history shows that whenever a boom overheats, a bubble inevitably emerges: the Dutch Tulip Mania (1630s), the South Sea Bubble (Britain, 1720), the Great Depression (1930s), and Japan’s asset‑bubble collapse (1990s).
A bubble is, quite literally, a bubble—something without substance. Speculative frenzy arises not from intrinsic value, but from human desire.
China, too—despite widespread claims it would avoid Japan’s path—entered a property‑bubble unwinding from 2021 onward.
At the time, a popular argument held that with a population of more than 1.4 billion, demand would absorb supply and bubbles would not form.
However, a sober review of economic history makes such conclusions unlikely. Estimates often cite around 6 million wealthy individuals (USD 1 million+ in assets), and roughly 400 million including the middle‑income group. That middle‑income segment is not expected to expand dramatically beyond this level.